Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 878
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 878 · MSY → MCO
departs 9:50 PM CT · arrives 12:45 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.03 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.