Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 878
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 878 · PHX → MSY
departs 4:15 PM MT · arrives 9:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 667 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.