WN 920 · ABQ → OAK

took off 4:49 PM MT · expected to land 5:49 PM PT (scheduled 4:35 PM MT → 6:10 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OAK?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 920 · ABQ → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?