Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 941
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 941 · TPA → BWI
departs 4:25 PM ET · arrives 6:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.