Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 969
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 969 · BWI → JAX
departs 8:15 AM ET · arrives 10:20 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into JAX at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.42 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.