Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 970
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 970 · LAS → FAT
departs 11:10 AM PT · arrives 12:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
LAS is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FAT (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.