Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3401
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 3401 · CHS → IAD
departs 2:47 PM ET · arrives 4:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at IAD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at CHS that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CHS (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.45 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.