Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3430
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 3430 · BUF → IAD
departs 10:34 AM ET · arrives 11:50 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 10%
Fri 10/9 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAD that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.