YX 3430 · CMH → IAD

departs 5:59 AM ET · arrives 7:30 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at IAD that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3430 · CMH → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?