Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 3454 · EWR → BGR
departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 6:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 20%
Thu 10/8 35%
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at BGR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BGR?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at EWR that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.05 in
BGR (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.