Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3459
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3459 · PWM → IAD
departs 2:20 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 14%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day
↑
PWM is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PWM
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.