Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3465
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 3465 · PWM → IAD
departs 9:55 AM ET · arrives 11:46 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAD that day
↑
PWM is prone to delays
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at PWM that day
↓
9am departures from PWM are usually not late
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.