Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3473
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3473 · EWR → CVG
departs 1:21 PM ET · arrives 3:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
CVG is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.08 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.