Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3476
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 3476 · EWR → BUF
departs 8:50 PM ET · arrives 10:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±5 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at EWR that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.