Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3492
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 3492 · EWR → CMH
departs 2:15 PM ET · arrives 4:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into CMH at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.05 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.