YX 3494 · PWM → IAD

departs 9:44 AM ET · arrives 11:51 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at IAD that day

↑ PWM is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at PWM that day

↓ 9am departures from PWM are usually not late

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3494 · PWM → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?