Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3512
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 3512 · EWR → SDF
departs 8:25 PM ET · arrives 10:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 21%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
8pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.13 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.