Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3522
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3522 · MCI → EWR
departs 3:26 PM CT · arrives 7:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±1 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
6%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.