Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3527
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 3527 · CVG → EWR
departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 8:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.