Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3561
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3561 · IAD → IND
departs 8:24 AM ET · arrives 10:13 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 7%
Thu 10/8 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
5.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.9 mi Precip 0.36 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.