Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3564
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 3564 · STL → EWR
departs 4:53 PM CT · arrives 8:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 27%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±4 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
6%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at EWR that day
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.