YX 3578 · ROC → EWR

departs 6:51 PM ET · arrives 8:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3578 · ROC → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?