YX 3600 · ORD → RDU

departs 9:05 AM CT · arrives 12:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at RDU that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3600 · ORD → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?