Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3608
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3608 · EWR → MSN
departs 8:39 AM ET · arrives 10:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into MSN at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.14 in
MSN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.