YX 3613 · MEM → EWR

departs 4:14 PM CT · arrives 7:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3613 · MEM → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?