Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3616
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3616 · EWR → CLE
departs 2:15 PM ET · arrives 4:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at CLE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to CLE?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
2pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.23 in
CLE (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.