Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3622
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3622 · IAD → BTV
departs 10:05 PM ET · arrives 11:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4
Odds over time
Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at BTV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BTV?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
This flight has been late 16% of the time recently
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.36 in
BTV (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.