Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3624
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3624 · IAD → RDU
departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 6:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.9 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↓
RDU usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.9 mi Precip 0.36 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.