Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3633
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 3633 · CLE → EWR
departs 5:42 PM ET · arrives 7:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±6 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
10%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CLE (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.