Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3682
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3682 · IAD → LGA
departs 10:05 PM ET · arrives 11:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 27%
Wed 10/7 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.43 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.