Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3684
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 3684 · GSP → EWR
departs 11:18 AM ET · arrives 1:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at GSP that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↓
GSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
GSP (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.11 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.