YX 3695 · SAV → IAD

took off 2:17 PM ET · expected to land 3:42 PM ET (scheduled 2:09 PM ET → 4:15 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at SAV that day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at IAD that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SAV (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.97 in

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3695 · SAV → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?