YX 4346 · LGA → ATL

departs 4:31 PM ET · arrives 7:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

ATL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4346 · LGA → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?