YX 4362 · BOS → SDF

departs 1:13 PM ET · arrives 4:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SDF at that hour are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

SDF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4362 · BOS → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?