YX 4418 · AVL → LGA

departs 4:11 PM ET · arrives 6:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
14%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at LGA that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at AVL that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

AVL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.28 in

LGA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4418 · AVL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?