YX 4421 · RDU → BNA

departs 4:08 PM ET · arrives 5:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at RDU that day

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from RDU are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.09 in

BNA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4421 · RDU → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?