YX 4437 · ORD → ILM

departs 8:33 PM CT · arrives 11:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4437 · ORD → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?