YX 4442 · ILM → ORD

departs 9:34 AM ET · arrives 11:16 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.3 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.28 in

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4442 · ILM → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?