YX 4443 · STL → LGA

departs 9:46 AM CT · arrives 1:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4443 · STL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?