Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4459 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

YX 4459 · ORD → JAX

departs 8:47 AM CT · arrives 11:31 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at JAX that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.66 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4459 · ORD → JAX

Odds over time