YX 4466 · RDU → LGA

took off 6:58 AM ET · landed 8:00 AM ET (scheduled 6:45 AM ET → 8:29 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at RDU that day

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.06 in

LGA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4466 · RDU → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?