YX 4472 · XNA → LGA

departs 4:37 PM CT · arrives 8:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts −33 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

Weather at each end

XNA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4472 · XNA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?