Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4473
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4473 · ORF → LGA
departs 10:55 AM ET · arrives 12:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at ORF that day
↑
ORF is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.38 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.