YX 4486 · CAE → ORD

took off 6:10 AM ET · expected to land 6:59 AM CT (scheduled 5:59 AM ET → 7:32 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at CAE that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from CAE are usually not late

Weather at each end

CAE (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.27 in

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4486 · CAE → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?