Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4490 LANDED 9:59 AM ET, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

YX 4490 · MSN → LGA

took off 7:13 AM CT · landed 9:59 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4490 · MSN → LGA

Odds over time