Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4500
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4500 · RIC → ORD
departs 12:00 PM ET · arrives 1:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at RIC that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
12pm departures from RIC are usually not late
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.4 mi Precip 1.03 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.