YX 4503 · ORD → RDU

departs 4:05 PM CT · arrives 7:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4503 · ORD → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?