YX 4521 · LGA → BUF

departs 7:29 PM ET · arrives 9:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

BUF (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4521 · LGA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?