Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4577
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4577 · LGA → GSO
departs 8:29 PM ET · arrives 10:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at GSO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to GSO?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.11 in
GSO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 1.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.