Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4581 · TUL → LGA
departs 8:15 AM CT · arrives 12:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Sat 10/3 5%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.